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최근 중국경제 동향과 우리 기업의 영향 조사

2023.08.31

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(8월31일자 조간) 중국경제 동향과 우리기업 영향조사.pdf

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<p style="text-align: center; line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">중국경제 경고등에 우리 기업들 불안 커진다</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 중국경제 불안 요인, ①부동산發 금융 불안, ②소비 위축, ③생산·수출 둔화</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 국내기업들 “매출 등 실적에 영향”(32%), “장기화시 실적 우려”(50%)</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 對중국 사업실적 저조... 기업 절반 이상(52%) “연초 목표 달성 못했다”</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 중국경제 전망은 “부진 지속될 것”(79%)... 대응전략은 ‘판로·품목 다변화’ ‘원가절감’</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"></strong><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 최근 중국경제에 켜진 경고등에 우리 기업들의 시름이 깊어지고 있다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 대한상공회의소(회장 최태원)는 30일 발표한 ‘최근 중국경제 동향과 우리 기업의 영향’ 자료를 통해 중국경제가 직면하고 있는 불안 요인으로 부동산시장의 금융 불안, 내수소비 위축, 산업 생산 및 수출 둔화를 꼽고, 하반기 실적반등을 노리는 우리기업들에게 부정적 영향이 우려된다고 밝혔다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 중국경제 불안은 부동산에서 시작되었다. 中 최대 부동산업체 비구이위안이 채무불이행 위험에 처했으며, 소호차이나·중룽신탁 등 개발사, 금융사의 채무불이행까지 이어지며 부동산시장 금융 불안과 이에 따른 경기침체 우려가 커지고 있다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 내수소비도 위축되고 있다. 리오프닝 효과로 4월 18.4%까지 올랐던 소매판매 증가율이 7월에는 2.5%로 떨어졌고, 높은 청년 실업률에 디플레이션 우려까지 겹쳐 소비심리가 부진한 상황이다. 산업부문도 생산증가율, 제조업 PMI, 수출실적 모두 부진한 모습이다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><표1> 중국경제 불안 요인과 관련지표 동향</span></strong></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;table-layout:fixed;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:none;border-right:none;"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 159px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background: rgb(160, 190, 224);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">부동산</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">發 </span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">금융 불안</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 485px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">비구이위안</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">, 2250</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">만달러</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">약 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">300</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">억원</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">) </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">규모 채권이자 지급 불이행</span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">오피스 개발사 소호차이나는 세금체납</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">, </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">중룽신탁은 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">64</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">조원 상품 상환 연기</span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· 1~7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 부동산 투자 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">–</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">8.5%, 7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">70</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">대 도시 중 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">49</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">곳 신규주택가격 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">↓</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 159px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background: rgb(160, 190, 224);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">내수소비 위축</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 485px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">소매판매 증가율</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">: 18.4%(4</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">) </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">2.5%(7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">소비자물가지수</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(CPI): 7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">–</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">0.3%</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· 6</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 청년실업률 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">21.3%</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 159px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background: rgb(160, 190, 224);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">산업생산 부진</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 485px; height: 64px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">산업생산 증가율</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">: 5.6%(4</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">) </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">3.7%(7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">제조업 </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">PMI 4</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">개월 연속 기준치</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(50) </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">미달</span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">· </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">수출 증가율</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">: 14.8%(3</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">) </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ –</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">14.5%(7</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"></p><div id="hwpEditorBoardContent" class="hwp_editor_board_content" data-hjsonver="1.0" data-jsonlen="17773" style="font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; line-height: normal; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><!--[data-hwpjson]{"documentPr": {"di": "","dp": {"dn": "test.hwp","ta": 1,"d1": 5,"d2": 0,"dv": 5,"dr": 1,"do": 1,"vj": "1.0","an": "Hancom Office Hangul","av": "9, 1, 1, 5656","ao": "WIN","ab": "32","ar": "LE","as": "Windows_Unknown_Version"},"dis": false,"ds": {"ti": "","la": 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상황”이라며 “중국경제가 둔화되면 우리기업들은 실적 측면에서 영향을 받을 수밖에 없다”고 말했다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">기업 10곳 중 8곳 “매출·실적에 영향” 있거나, “장기화될 시 영향 우려중”</span></strong><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><그림1> 중국 경기상황에 따른 영향</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><img src="http://www.korcham.net/dext5editordata/2023/08/20230831_105935282_63745.png" title="" alt="" border="0" style="width: 280px; height: 251px; border: 0px solid; font-size: 12pt;"></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 중국경제의 불안 요인은 이미 우리기업들에게 직간접적인 영향을 미치고 있었다. 대한상의가 대중국 수출기업 302개사를 대상으로 조사한 결과에 따르면, 최근 중국 경기상황이 기업 실적에 영향을 미치는지에 대한 질문에 32.4%는 ‘이미 매출 등 실적에 영향’, 50.3%는 ‘장기화시 우려’라고 답해 대다수 기업이 영향을 받거나 받을 것으로 예상한다고 나타났다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 경영실적의 어떤 부문에 대해 영향을 받는지를 묻는 질문에 응답기업의 42.7%는 ‘중국 내 소비재 판매 감소’, 32.7%는 ‘부품, 소재 등 중간재 판매 감소’, 16.6%는 ‘현지법인 실적 악화’라고 응답했다. <대금연체 등 금융리스크 8%></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 가장 우려되는 중국경제의 불안 요인으로는 ‘중국 내 소비침체’가 33.7%,‘산업생산 부진’이 26.7%로 나타났으며, 이어서 ‘미중 무역분쟁 장기화’가 20%, ‘통관절차·무역장벽 강화’가 19.6%로 응답되었다. 대외 리스크보다 중국 내부의 경기상황 악화를 더욱 우려하는 것으로 나타났다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">기업 절반 이상(52%) “연초 목표대비 실적 저조” ... 실제 올해 對中 수출도 25.9% 줄어</span></strong><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 중국시장에서의 연초 목표 대비 현재까지 경영실적을 물으니 과반이 넘는 기업이 ‘목표대비 저조’(37.7%) 또는 ‘매우저조’(14.7%)라고 응답했다. 이어‘목표수준 달성’은 45%, ‘초과달성’(2.3%) 혹은 ‘크게 초과 달성’(0.3%)이라 응답한 기업은 2.6%에 그쳐 리오프닝 기대감에 비해 실적이 미치지 못하는 경우가 많은 것으로 나타났다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 실제로 올해 1~7월 대중국 수출은 전년 대비 –25.9%로 크게 감소했다. 주요 수출품목도 모두 부진하였는데, 최대 수출품인 반도체는 –40.4% 감소하였고, 디스플레이(-45.7%), 석유화학(-22.5%) 등 기타 중간재도 감소폭이 컸다. 대표 소비재인 화장품(-25.3%), 무선통신기기(-12.9%)도 부진을 면치 못했다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><그림2> 1~7월 주요 품목의 對中 수출 감소율 (전년비)</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><img src="http://www.korcham.net/dext5editordata/2023/08/20230831_105953782_50576.png" title="" alt="" border="0" style="width: 321px; height: 177px; border: 0px solid; font-size: 12pt;"></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 향후 중국경제 전망에 대해 기업들의 79.0%가 ‘부진이 지속될 것’이라고 밝혔으며, 그 원인으로 ‘산업생산 부진’(54.5%), ‘소비 둔화 추세’(43.0%)를 가장 많이 꼽았다. <기타 2.5%> 반대로 중국경제가 ‘점차 나아질 것’(21.0%)이라고 응답한 기업들은 그 이유로 ‘중국 정부의 경기부양책 효과’(76.2%)를 가장 많이 꼽았고, ‘리오프닝 효과가 나타날 것’이라는 응답은 23.8%였다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 중국경제 불안 요인에 대응하기 위해 준비하고 있는 전략으로는 ▲제3국으로 판로 다변화(29.7%), ▲생산시설 제3국 이전(6.3%)과 같은 탈중국 전략과 ▲중국시장에서 품목 다변화(18.7%), ▲가격경쟁력 강화(20.0%) 같은 중국 집중 전략이 비슷하게 나타났다. ‘특별히 준비하고 있는 대응방안이 없다’는 답변도 25.0%로 적지 않았다. <기타 0.3%> </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 김현수 대한상의 경제정책팀장은 “최근 중국 경기부진의 원인이 디레버리징(부채 축소)과 같은 장기적 구조조정의 과정이라는 관측도 있어서 긴 호흡으로 대응방안을 생각할 필요가 있다”며 “중국시장을 포기하지 않으면서도 판로나 생산기지를 다각화 하는 China Plus One 전략이나 확실한 경쟁우위를 갖는 초격차 기술혁신 전략 등 기업상황에 맞는 다양한 옵션을 고민할 필요가 있다”고 밝혔다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">< 조사 개요 ></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">• 조사 기간 : 8/18(금)~8/23(수)</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">• 조사 대상 : 전국 대중국 수출업체 302개사(대기업 31, 중견기업 75, 중소기업 196)</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">• 조사 방법 : 전화 및 e-mail</span><br></p>

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