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한미 금리역전기 환율 변동의 특징 및 시사점

2023.08.21

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(8월21일자 조간)한미 금리역전기 환율변동 시사점.pdf

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<p style="text-align: center; line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">과거 4차례 韓·美 금리 역전기, 환율 변동 추이 살펴보니?</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 금리역전기에는 원·달러 환율 변동폭 크지 않아... 자본흐름도 안정</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 유동성 과잉 잡기 위한 美 금리인상이 실물경제 위기로 전이될 때 환율불안 키워</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 3·4차 역전기에는 금리인상이 실물경제 위기로의 전이 차단돼 환율불안 크지 않아</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> - 상의 “美 금리 추종보다 대외發 경제 충격 견딜 Fundamental 관리가 더 중요”</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"></strong><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 대한상의가 과거 4차례 한미 금리역전기를 분석해본 결과, 금리역전기보다 美 금리인상 이후에 발생한 실물경제 충격에 따른 환율 불안이 더 컸던 것으로 드러났다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 대한상공회의소(회장 최태원)가 20일 발표한 ‘한미 금리역전기 환율 변동의 특징 및 시사점’보고서에 따르면, 한국은행이 정책금리를 제시하기 시작한 1999년 5월 이후 현재까지 총 4차례의 한미 금리역전이 있었고, 이 기간 환율 변동폭은 크지 않았던 것으로 나타났다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 실제로 제1차 금리역전기(1999년6월∼2001년3월), 2차 금리역전기(2005년8월∼2007년9월)에는 금리역전 격차가 벌어질수록 환율이 오히려 하락하는 현상이 나타났다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 최근 3차 금리역전기(2018년3월∼2020년2월)와 4차 역전기(2022년9월~)에는 환율이 소폭상승하며 불안한 흐름을 보였으나 큰 폭의 환율변동은 나타나지 않았다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><그림1> 한미 정책금리 격차와 원/달러 환율</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><img src="http://www.korcham.net/dext5editordata/2023/08/20230821_110001353_00449.png" title="" alt="" border="0" style="width: 572px; height: 203px; border: 0px solid; font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">유동성 과잉 잡기 위한 美 금리인상이 실물경제 위기로 전이될 때 환율불안 키워</span></strong><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 대한상의는 오히려 금리역전기보다는 미국의 금리인상 이후 미국과 글로벌 경제에 미치는 파급영향에 더 주목해야 한다고 주장했다. 과잉 공급된 유동성을 잡기 위한 美 연준의 고금리 정책이 실물경제 위기로 전이될 경우 환율불안이 커진다는 것이다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 실제로 1차 금리역전기 후반부에 터진 ‘닷컴버블 붕괴’, 2차 역전기 종료 후 발생한 ‘리먼 브라더스 사태’로 인해 원·달러 환율이 단기간에 급등했다. 1차 역전기에도 ‘닷컴버블 붕괴’가 발생하기 전까지는 환율이 하락추세를 보이고 있었다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 반면 3차·4차 금리역전기에는 美 금리인상의 여파로 주가급락, 디플레이션, 금융불안 등이 발생했으나 더 이상 확산되지 않으면서 비교적 환율불안이 크지 않았다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><표1> 금리역전기 발생요인과 환율·자본 변동</span></strong></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;table-layout:fixed;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:none;border-right:none;"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="2" style="width: 110px; height: 82px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">금리역전기</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">금리격차</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 31px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">1</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">차 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(1.5%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 31px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">2</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">차 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(1.0%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 31px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">3</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">차 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(1.0%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 31px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">4</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">차 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(2.0%p)</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’99.6~’01.3</span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(16</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">개월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’05.8~’07.9</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(25</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">개월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’18.3~’20.2</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(23</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">개월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’22.9~</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(10</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">개월</span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">~)</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 110px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">유동성 과잉</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">美</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">금리인상</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">이유</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">닷컴버블로 인한</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">시장 과열</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">부동산 시장 과열</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">, </span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">주택가격 버블</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">장기 저금리로 인한 자산 버블</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">코로나 대응</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">유동성 공급</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 110px; height: 73px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">美</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">금리인상</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">인상폭</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 73px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’99.5</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">4.75% </span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’00.5</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">6.5%</span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(1.75%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 73px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’04.5</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">1%</span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’06.6</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">5.25%</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(4.25%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 73px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’15.11</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">0.25%</span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’18.12</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">2.5%</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(2.25%p)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 73px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’22.2</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">0.25%</span></span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">→ </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’23.7</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 255); font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">5.5%</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(5.25%p)</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 110px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">실물경제 전이</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">닷컴버블 붕괴</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">리먼</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">브라더스 사태</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">,</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">글로벌 금융위기</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">주가급락</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">, </span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">디플레 조짐 등 제한적</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 59px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">SVB</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">파산 금융불안</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">있으나 제한적</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 110px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">환율 변화율</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">기초 대비 기말</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">11.8%</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">-</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">10.7%</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">12.3%</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">-</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">5.9%</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="width: 110px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월평균</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">자본흐름</span></span></p><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">외국인주식</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">·</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">채권</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.5pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">)</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">7.7</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">억 달러</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">11.7</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">억 달러</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 129px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">16.8</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">억 달러</span></span></p></td><td style="width: 133px; height: 51px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; text-align: center; word-break: keep-all; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">+</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1pt; font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">17.6</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">억 달러</span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 630px; height: 25px; padding: 1.41pt 5.1pt; border-top: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left: none; border-bottom: none; border-right: none;" valign="middle"><p class="0" style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">*4</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">차 자료는 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">’23</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">년 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">7</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">월말까지 분석 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">(</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">자료 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">: </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">한국은행 </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: -1.4pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">ECOS)</span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"></p><p style="line-height: 200%; font-family: 나눔고딕; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 대한상의는 “지난 4차례의 금리역전기를 통해 금리변동이 외환시장과 실물경제에 미치는 패턴을 읽을 수 있었다”면서, “미국의 유동성 과잉이 금리인상으로 이어지고, 금리인상에 따라 실물경제가 영향을 받아 글로벌 환율불안으로 이어진다”고 설명했다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 다만 美 금리인상의 폭이 美 실물경제에 충격을 주는 정도에 따라서 향방이 갈렸다. 1·2차 금리인상기는 美 정책금리 수준이 5%를 초과하면서 실물경제에 미치는 부담이 컸던 반면에 3차 금리인상기에는 최고금리가 2.5%로 높지 않은 수준이었다. </span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 김현수 대한상의 경제정책팀장은 “지난 4차례의 금리인상기와 그 이후의 원·달러 환율 추이를 분석해본 결과, 한미간 금리격차 그 자체보다는 美 실물경제 충격이 글로벌 경기침체와 환율 불안의 불쏘시개가 된 만큼, 대외發 경제 충격을 견딜 Fundamental 관리가 더 중요하다”고 밝혔다.</span><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><br style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 나눔고딕; line-height: 32px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> 아울러 “우리 경제가 대외적으로 노출되어 있기 때문에 美 통화정책과 실물 경제 움직임에 영향을 받지 않을 수 없지만, 진폭과 길이는 우리 경제의 체력에 달려 있다”면서 “가계부채, 부동산PF 등 금융부문의 잠재적 취약성을 경감시키고, 중장기적으로 외환시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 무역적자 구조를 벗어나는데 정책의 초점을 맞춰야 한다”고 주문했다.</span></p>

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